The long-term budget outlook for the federal government is bleak. What is surprising is that this is considered news.
The forces driving the U.S.’s long-term budget problem have been known for decades. We’ve also known for years that sometime in this decade, the outlook would begin to worsen considerably. And now it has. And no, the deteriorating fiscal situation has little to do with stimulus spending, bank or auto bailouts, or the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
What’s the typical income of a U.S. retiree? $40,000? $50,000? Higher, lower?
It’s $31,157 as of 2008.
That’s the median income of households age 65 and older as reported by Pat Purcell of the Congressional Research Service. The median means that half of older households had a higher income, half lower. Technically, it’s not the income of “retirees,” because it includes the income of older households whether they are fully retired or still working. Still, it’s a good metric of the income of retired Americans.
A new poll from Gallup says that Americans expect to depend more on Social Security when they retire—and less on 401(k)s, IRAs, and part-time work. I don’t believe it for a minute.
For many years, the government has published statistics on Americans’ age and employment. A version of that data is shown in the chart below. My sense is that these figures are the basis for much of the conventional wisdom on the age at which people retire, as well as for whatever general notions people have about when they’ll start to need “replacement income.”
Several years ago at a speech in New York, I warned that “a future President Clinton or McCain would face a daunting budget challenge from population aging.” My political forecast was off, but my economic and demographic forecast is unchanged.
