I elicited some grief from certain Vanguard Blog readers by talking about a recovery in 401(k) accounts earlier this year. Allow me to provide an update on the issue.
Recall my basic premise: As a result of ongoing contributions, as well as portfolio diversification, the wealth level of many 401(k) participants had not fallen as dramatically as commonly perceived. In fact, some workers had experienced growing 401(k) account balances even during falling markets. These were, admittedly, mostly employees starting out their savings careers, where contributions are large relative to balances.
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I’m a little tired of reading about how “buy and hold” is dead, and diversification doesn’t work, and how “target-date funds don’t work,” and that there was too much risk, especially for pre-retirees, in these balanced funds. These stories seem to continue regardless of what’s going on in the real world.
So I won’t discuss much. Instead, here’s some math.
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I realize this will be about my third post on this issue, but the things people are writing about 401(k)s just get more and more absurd, and it’s tough to sit by and let this go unchallenged.
Now the editors of The New York Times are claiming that “Even with recent stock market upswings, account balances are roughly 25 percent lower than before the crash.”
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For 35 years I’ve carried a quotation in my wallet. More precisely, I’ve moved the quotation, clipped from a now-defunct newspaper, from wallet to wallet to wallet over the decades.
The quotation is from Willa Cather’s “O Pioneers”:
“There are only two or three human stories, and they go on repeating themselves as fiercely as if they had never happened before; like the larks in this country, that have been singing the same five notes over for thousands of years.”
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Nearly 20 years ago, I helped a group of friends start an investment club.
We were regulars at a friendly poker game, so we named our venture the Busted Flush Investment Club. My hope was that I could interest these guys—they were all guys—in learning more about investing. The idea of investment clubs has been around for many decades, and some individual clubs have kept going for years.
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