Steve Utkus oversees the Vanguard Center for Retirement Research, which studies many aspects of retirement in America—from how individuals start saving and investing in the early part of their careers, to how they prepare for actual retirement, to how they spend down their savings once they’re retired.
I’ve mentioned in several previous posts that the anxiety about 401(k) balances has been largely overstated, in part because of the beneficial effects of ongoing contributions and diversified portfolios. This point has come across as Pollyanna-ish to some of you, a point that I can sympathize with, even though I largely disagree with it.
However, I am no Pollyanna about retirement risks, and want to spend a moment discussing what I view as the most important real risk embedded in your retirement savings account: the possible toxic combination of unemployment and market losses.
I elicited some grief from certain Vanguard Blog readers by talking about a recovery in 401(k) accounts earlier this year. Allow me to provide an update on the issue.
Recall my basic premise: As a result of ongoing contributions, as well as portfolio diversification, the wealth level of many 401(k) participants had not fallen as dramatically as commonly perceived. In fact, some workers had experienced growing 401(k) account balances even during falling markets. These were, admittedly, mostly employees starting out their savings careers, where contributions are large relative to balances.
How does your ability to make financial decisions change over time?
One research study suggests that, across the population, financial skill follows a hump-shaped pattern. In our youth, we start with low levels of financial knowledge. Over time, our ability grows through experience. However, as we age, our cognitive faculties begin to decline. Over time, the decline in ability outpaces the growth in experience, and as a result our net ability falls. Hence the idea of a hump-shaped curve: from a low in youth, to a peak in middle age, to a slope downward in our older years.
There are only two reasons you appear on the cover of Time magazine—either you are receiving plaudits from the media, or you’re about to be tarred and feathered. 401(k)s are featured on the cover of Time this week, and it’s not because they’ve been named “plan of the year.”
Should you invest differently given the impending retirement of tens of millions of baby boomers? This is a question I’ve received from advisors and investors in recent weeks, and one which, quite frankly, I’ve given little thought to throughout the financial crisis. (It always seemed like a topic of conversation when the Dow was at 14,000 and not at 7,000.)
