Steve Utkus oversees the Vanguard Center for Retirement Research, which studies many aspects of retirement in America—from how individuals start saving and investing in the early part of their careers, to how they prepare for actual retirement, to how they spend down their savings once they’re retired.
In the investment world, you occasionally come across a simple yet striking observation. Here’s an example from a recent client letter of Howard Marks, chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, L.P., and one of Vanguard’s external investment advisors:
It’s a new year, so here are a few investment and retirement thoughts that come to mind for 2012.
When it comes to investing, Theme #1 among investors, especially among the majority of the retired or conservative crowd, continues to be the insatiable search for yield. In this regard, I would encourage investors not to be misled by the spectacular total returns on fixed income markets. Long-term Treasury bonds were up 30% in 2011 (as measured by the Barclays Long-Term Treasury Index). That substantial total return arose mainly from a large capital gain due to falling interest rates. (Recall the sequence: Panic about Europe and a volatile U.S. stock market led to a flight to Treasuries by global investors, which drove up bond prices—i.e., resulting in a capital gain on bonds—and consequently drove down their yields.)
My recent comments about the performance of retirement accounts elicited a wave of comments from Vanguard investors about poor stock market returns. Here are a few thoughts in response.
Global aging is a familiar idea. Not only are populations in the advanced economies aging rapidly, but so are those in emerging countries. For investors, the aging trend poses a number of broad, sometimes philosophical questions—the sustainability of public benefit promises to the aged, the impact of aging on markets, and expected investment returns.
But one issue is much more personal: the impact of aging on our own abilities (and the ability of our loved ones) to make informed financial decisions.
I was at a garden party recently, on a beautiful Sunday afternoon in September, where talk centered around the economy, politics, favorite movies, and the latest in electronic gadgets. Yet one conversation that struck a particular chord with me was the “case for China.”
You’ve heard it repeated in various forms. The Chinese economy is booming, while the developed economies are in a funk. Chinese infrastructure is gleaming and new, while U.S. infrastructure is falling apart. Output from the Chinese economy will soon exceed U.S. output, signaling the end of American influence and prominence in the world. The argument is actually much broader and about emerging markets in general. The emerging economies are ascending, and the U.S. and other rich countries are washed up.
