I’ve mentioned in several previous posts that the anxiety about 401(k) balances has been largely overstated, in part because of the beneficial effects of ongoing contributions and diversified portfolios. This point has come across as Pollyanna-ish to some of you, a point that I can sympathize with, even though I largely disagree with it.
However, I am no Pollyanna about retirement risks, and want to spend a moment discussing what I view as the most important real risk embedded in your retirement savings account: the possible toxic combination of unemployment and market losses.
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Paul A. Samuelson, who died December 13 at age 94, was rightly remembered as a brilliant educator, as author of the best-selling economics textbook ever, and as the second recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Professor Samuelson, the Nobel committee wrote, “has done more than any other contemporary economist to raise the level of scientific analysis in economic theory.”
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I’ve written about financial fraud involving seniors before, and it remains a serious concern. Unfortunately, there’s not much we in the investment industry can do beyond warning our clients to be vigilant and working through issues when they arise. As with any sort of fraud, the best defense is an educated and skeptical investor.
Let me share a recent situation encountered by one of Vanguard’s client-service phone groups.
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The idea of holding a portion of your portfolio in non-U.S. stocks has been around for quite some time, but the ways in and reasons for which it’s put into practice have evolved.
At first, the addition of non-U.S. stocks provided another level of diversification, as these markets did not move in perfect tandem with the U.S. market. Today, it’s harder to discern the difference between markets in the United States and abroad—just consider the events of the past year.
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I elicited some grief from certain Vanguard Blog readers by talking about a recovery in 401(k) accounts earlier this year. Allow me to provide an update on the issue.
Recall my basic premise: As a result of ongoing contributions, as well as portfolio diversification, the wealth level of many 401(k) participants had not fallen as dramatically as commonly perceived. In fact, some workers had experienced growing 401(k) account balances even during falling markets. These were, admittedly, mostly employees starting out their savings careers, where contributions are large relative to balances.
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